The seven rules of trading

I post this today as a reminder to anyone who is caught short in the big NLST short-squeeze.

Sometimes I’m asked why I don’t make more money. I have two responses to this: first, I am not actually a very talented trader; second, I trade for a living, so my goal is to make a certain income while taking as little risk as possible. Those who focus on making as much money as possible while ignoring risk will invariably lose almost everything, no matter how talented they are, just as Livermore and Niederhoffer did.

1. Hope is not a strategy.
2. Plan your entry and exit before you make a trade.
3. If you are unsure of what to do, get out.
4. Only trade when you have an edge.
5. Track all your trades. If a strategy loses money, abandon it.
6. Do not focus only on potential gains but also on potential losses. Trade only when the risk/reward ratio is favorable.
7. Don’t let a very good profit disappear or turn into a loss because you want an even bigger profit.

Trade recap for November 17th: My pathetic inability to trade supernova NLST

Another disappointing day; I captured less than 1/3 of the profit that I should have had in NLST. Still, another $1k+ day.

Trades at IB:
SLD    1,000    IMGG    false    Stock (OTCBB)    1.6400    USD    ARCAEDGE    09:43:02        5.00
SLD    500    IMGG    false    Stock (OTCBB)    1.6400    USD    ARCAEDGE    09:43:33        2.50
BOT    500    IMGG    false    Stock (OTCBB)    1.4350    USD    ARCAEDGE    10:20:52        2.50
BOT    500    IMGG    false    Stock (OTCBB)    1.4600    USD    ARCAEDGE    10:21:39        2.50
BOT    500    IMGG    false    Stock (OTCBB)    1.4700    USD    ARCAEDGE    10:22:23        2.50

nlst

NLST 4 day chart
nlst4day

NLST 1 day chart
nlst1day

Daily profit: $1,574.43 (after adding in profit on position closed after-hours; see comment #1 below)

Disclosure: Short 5,000 shares of NLST. No positions in any other stocks mentioned in this post. I have a disclosure policy and you can find all my disclaimers there as well; those disclosure & disclaimers are incorporated by reference into this post.

Trade recap / watchlist: All eyes on NLST

I had a profit on NLST that erased my previous losses on it. The end appears near for it, although the stock has not yet collapsed. So ALFFS. See my video from last night if you want my thoughts on trading it and watch my video below.

nlst_multi

NLST 4-day
nlst4

NLST 1-day
nlst1

Daily profit: $902.00

Disclosure: No positions in any stocks mentioned in this post. I have a disclosure policy and you can find all my disclaimers there as well; those disclosure & disclaimers are incorporated by reference into this post.

NLST goes supernova

There is no watchlist tonight. That would be superfluous. There is only NLST (okay, IMGG is also interesting, but NLST is much better). Did you follow my advice to ALFSS? I did and I am ready. (And by the way, ALFSS certainly does not mean short it as soon as you can. Supernovae make great longs before they make great shorts and I tried to long it Friday). If you are interested in trading supernovae, watch this video where I lay out my battle plan.

For further edification, see my trade recaps of recent supernova GGC.

nlst

nlst_3day

nlst_1day

Disclosure: No net positions in any stocks mentioned in this post. I have a disclosure policy and you can find all my disclaimers there as well; those disclosure & disclaimers are incorporated by reference into this post.

Trade recap for Friday the 13th: Previous resistance becomes support; set stops accordingly

I have to be the only one to lose money going long NLST today. Oyvey.

After recording the video I bought 50,000 VGPR at $0.0201 and sold 50,000 at $0.021  +$23.62 realized

BOT    2,300    NLST    false    Stock (NMS)    2.3200    USD    SMART    09:32:00        11.50
SLD    2,300    NLST    false    Stock (NMS)    2.1700    USD    ISLAND    09:33:56        11.50
+    SLD    200    VRMLQ    false    Stock    23.500    USD    SMART    09:34:01        1.00
SLD    200    VRMLQ    false    Stock    22.90    USD    SMART    09:38:04        1.00
+    BOT    2,300    NLST    false    Stock (NMS)    2.337    USD    ISLAND    09:43:37        11.50
+    SLD    2,300    NLST    false    Stock (NMS)    2.280    USD    SMART    09:44:34        11.50
+    BOT    2,300    NLST    false    Stock (NMS)    2.430    USD    ISLAND    09:46:39        11.50
+    SLD    2,300    NLST    false    Stock (NMS)    2.453    USD    SMART    09:47:42        11.50
BOT    1,000    IMGG    false    Stock (OTCBB)    1.6400    USD    ARCAEDGE    14:14:35        5.00
SLD    1,000    IMGG    false    Stock (OTCBB)    1.6500    USD    ARCAEDGE    14:22:40        5.00
BOT    50,000    VGPR    false    Stock    0.0200    USD    SMART    14:56:19        5.00
SLD    25,000    VGPR    false    Stock    0.0220    USD    SMART    15:02:48        2.75
+    SLD    25,000    VGPR    false    Stock    .019    USD    SMART    15:26:42        2.42

Daily profit: ($99.86)

Weekly profit: $3264.56

For Livestock viewers, here’s the Grand Canyon from a helicopter:

helicopter

Disclosure: No net positions in any stocks mentioned in this post. I have a disclosure policy and you can find all my disclaimers there as well; those disclosure & disclaimers are incorporated by reference into this post.

Watchlist for Friday the 13th

Odd facts: thirteen is my lucky number and I actually lived in Crystal Lake for a time while growing up.

NLST – ALFFS! ALFFS! ALFFS! Nice 100%+ run up on no meaningful news. ALFFS! ALFFS! ALFFS! You know the drill by now … hopefully.

nlst

VRMLQ – I’m long this (as is Tim Sykes) on this beautiful breakout with volume. I hope to exit on a morning spike … this thing has a good record of multi-day runs.

vrmlq

IMGG, SNIC, KNDI, NANO are some other recent breakouts. Considering how interesting the first two stocks are I won’t even show you the graphs of these stocks. If there are ideal plays, ignore all others.

Disclosure: Long 400 VRMLQ. I have a disclosure policy and you can find all my disclaimers there as well; those disclosure & disclaimers are incorporated by reference into this post.

Trade recap for November 12th: Reverse pseudo-arbitrage

Good recap today that explains how I practice share-class pseudo-arbitrage. Watch it.

+    BOT    1,000    CNLG    false    Stock (SCM)    1.815    USD    ARCA    09:36:18        5.00
+    SLD    1,000    CNLG    false    Stock (SCM)    1.850    USD    SMART    09:45:23        5.00
+    SLD    1,000    PLA    false    Stock    3.930    USD    SMART    11:39:39        5.00
+    BOT    1,000    PLA    false    Stock    3.830    USD    SMART    11:44:16        5.00
+    BOT    400    VRMLQ    false    Stock    21.500    USD    SMART    12:49:06        2.00
+    SLD    200    VRMLQ    false    Stock    22.450    USD    SMART    12:55:49        1.00
+    BOT    1,200    KNDI    false    Stock (SCM)    4.014    USD    DRCTEDGE    13:56:07        6.00
+    SLD    200    VRMLQ    false    Stock    23.260    USD    SMART    13:56:20        2.00
+    SLD    1,200    KNDI    false    Stock (SCM)    4.050    USD    SMART    14:10:12        6.00
SLD    30    BRK B    false    Stock    3396.70    USD    NYSE    14:53:56        1.00
BOT    1    BRK A    false    Stock    101965.00    USD    NYSE    14:53:58        1.00
BOT    1    BRK A    false    Stock    101989.00    USD    NYSE    14:56:02        1.00
SLD    30    BRK B    false    Stock    3396.54    USD    NYSE    14:56:37        1.00
+    BOT    400    VRMLQ    false    Stock    22.268    USD    SMART    15:43:27        2.38

Daily profit: $684.23

Disclosure: Long 60 BRK-B, short 2 BRK-A, long 400 VRMLQ. I have a disclosure policy and you can find all my disclaimers there as well; those disclosure & disclaimers are incorporated by reference into this post.

Watchlist for 11/12

No graphs tonight. I’m beat after doing some more work on my DVD.

SMI – No play. Up on news that it will not be destroyed by litigation. Lack of intraday move suggests it has found the right price.

CHLN – Meh. Earnings. Gap and crap a little today, but I don’t anticipate any big moves.

NCST – Buyout.

NLST, SNIC – Nice breakout. Watch.

NANO – Broke out today. Might be nice tomorrow on green.

SNVP – What a waste of a beautiful pump. I heard Schwab had shares. Was beautiful morning panic on the gap down open.

Disclosure: No positions in any stocks mentioned in this post. I have a disclosure policy and you can find all my disclaimers there as well; those disclosure & disclaimers are incorporated by reference into this post.

Trade recap for 11/11

Not a very exciting day. SNIC continues breaking out, I continue to miss it.

BOT    9,000    CYRS    false    Stock (OTCBB)    0.3500    USD    ARCAEDGE    09:30:41        15.75
SLD    2,000    CYRS    false    Stock (OTCBB)    0.3650    USD    ARCAEDGE    09:39:18        3.65
SLD    2,000    CYRS    false    Stock (OTCBB)    0.3600    USD    ARCAEDGE    09:39:39        3.60
SLD    5,000    CYRS    false    Stock (OTCBB)    0.3600    USD    ARCAEDGE    09:40:21        9.00
+    BOT    6,600    EONC    false    Stock (SCM)    2.691    USD    DRCTEDGE    09:42:30        33.00
+    SLD    6,600    EONC    false    Stock (SCM)    2.740    USD    ISLAND    09:43:03        33.00
SLD    200    SNIC    false    Stock (NMS)    9.00    USD    SMART    14:49:13        1.00
+    BOT    200    SNIC    false    Stock (NMS)    9.210    USD    SMART    14:54:56        1.00

Daily profit: $281.08

The song you may or may not notice in the background of the above video is the following and is my current obsession.

Disclosure: No positions in any stocks mentioned in this post. I own the MP3 of the above song, downloaded from Amazon. I have a disclosure policy and you can find all my disclaimers there as well; those disclosure & disclaimers are incorporated by reference into this post.

Update on trading like Tim Sykes: $101,000 in profits

If you are not familiar with my history with Tim Sykes, I suggest reading The truth about Tim Sykes from a former critic, followed by my Update on trading Tim Sykes’ system, and Making money by buying stocks on my watchlist. I first started trading like Tim Sykes in June of 2006. I had initially been skeptical of his system but it was hard to argue with his performance. Before I bought his book and DVD and subscribed to his TimAlerts (I am now a lifetime subscriber), I first read every single one of his previous blog posts and I examined every single of his previous trades since he started blogging in November 2007 (his trades are verified on Covestor). If someone wishes to learn from Sykes and does not wish to buy his DVDs, I heartily recommend reading his blog posts to study all his previous trades.

From the very beginning I was successful trading based on Sykes’ alerts and using his strategy for my own trades. I have now surpassed $101,000 in total profit using his strategy. In terms of my total trading account, this is not a huge amount (I have a multi-hundred-thousand dollar account), but considering that I rarely use very much capital to trade in Sykes’ style and the trades are short-term, I have most of my trading capital available to trade my other trading strategies.

Below are a few stats on my trades this year and last. Like what you see? Why not check out Tim Sykes’ DVDs? I recommend Pennystocking Part Deux and TimFundamentals Part Deux (I own both). I don’t recommend TimTactics.

Total profit in 2009: $53,323.78

Watchlist longs (stocks I buy based on my own watchlist): $1,765.69
Weighted average profit margin: 1.45%

Other self-initiated trades: $26,689.68
Weighted average profit margin: 0.95%

Trades based on TimAlerts: $21,314.40
Weighted average profit margin: 1.65%

Total profit in 2008: $48,224.60

Self-initiated trades: $30,991.11
Weighted average profit margin: 3.92%

Trades based on TimAlerts: $17,233.49
Weighted average profit margin: 1.10%

timprofit_11-11-09
(Note: the above chart does not include my profits from my watchlist longs, currently at $1765 since June 2009)

Biggest winners 2009

Here are some of my best trades this year.

ALAN    Short    12550    5/14/2009    $1.012    —  Cover    5/14/2009    $0.605
Profit: $5,104.96    40.21%
Stockpreacher pump, shorted into biggest volume around 1, exhausted all IB borrows quickly; was up from 0.48 previous day; goal was to cover around .60
ALAN    Short    44500    5/14/2009    $1.009    —  Cover    5/14/2009    $0.734
Profit:  $12,217.48    27.21%
As above, in other acct, messed up big time; hit buy instead of cancel, and bought 9300 at 1.03 right as I achieved my full position (this is reflected in the average prices; so I really only took 36k shares from 1.01 to .63)

SPNG.ob    Short    20000    6/12/2009    $0.177   —  Cover   6/15/2009    $0.125
Profit: $1,041.20    29.43%
had death drop from .28 to .08, shorted (with tim) on bounce on a Friday, covered after almost 30 straight minutes of slow drop next Monday morning

SMTX    Long    2613    6/30/2009    $0.752    —  Sold    6/30/2009    $1.142
Profit: $1,019.07    51.86%
Stockpreacher pump, three separate buy orders all partially filled at .68, .755, and .78; sold near hod of 1.19 (little volume there; was significant volume at 1) and then immediately went short with all 4k shares IB had
SMTX    Short    4313    6/30/2009    $0.970   —  Cover    6/30/2009    $0.905
Profit: $280.00    6.69%
Stockpreacher pump, shorted quickly to get shares (IB only had 4k shares), shorted when up 40% from .68
SMTX    Short    35750    6/30/2009    $0.978    —  Cover    6/30/2009    $0.899
Profit: $2,831.40    8.09%
Stockpreacher pump, got plenty of shares shorting with best ask in other account; very aggressive position; an hour later only 220k shares had traded; Stockpreacher losing his mojo; covered 10k after a few hours, covered rest 2 hours before close when big size on ask started getting eaten

OPXA    Short    1000    9/9/2009    $4.459    —  Cover    9/10/2009    $3.874
Profit: $585.10    13.12%
Tim shorted 30 minutes after me; up from 1.50 to 5.65 the previous day on what was really a small subset of results from phase 2 MS drug trial, shorted when down 20% on day but broke below morning’s lows (not absolute lows, but lows with volume at 4.50), averaged into position; looked to hold overnight, but couldn’t resist covering into drop below lods 30 minutes before close
OPXA    Short    1000    9/9/2009    $4.459    —  Cover    9/9/2009    $4.184
Profit: $275.10    6.17%
Tim shorted 30 minutes after me; up from 1.50 to 5.65 the previous day on what was really a small subset of results from phase 2 MS drug trial, shorted when down 20% on day but broke below morning’s lows (not absolute lows, but lows with volume at 4.50), averaged into position; covered 1k so the position wouldn’t be all my account overnight
OPXA    Short    2000    9/9/2009    $4.459    —  Cover    9/9/2009    $4.111
Profit: $697.20    7.82%
same as above, covered when TimAlert cover hit as it tanked a bunch
OPXA    Short    2000    9/9/2009    $4.459    —  Cover    9/9/2009    $3.969
Profit: $980.20    10.99%
same as above, covered more when it broke $4 and then bounced … was down 30% on the day then so I doubted it had much more; looked to hold 1k overnight

XSNX.ob    Short    35000    9/10/2009    $0.202   —  Cover    9/10/2009    $0.156
Profit: $1,612.10    22.82%
Stockpreacher / Beacon Equity pump from .12, shorted right at highs of .21 and 10k again after Tim Sykes alerted

Biggest losers 2009

Here are some of my worst trades of 2009.

CBOU    Long    19500    7/20/2009    $4.951    —  Sold    7/20/2009    $4.800
Profit: -$2,944.50    -3.05%
TimAlert, he shorted @ 5, I thought he bought, so I bought; oh crap. Then I shorted but at crappy price (4.78) which added $900 to my loss

GVBP.ob    Short    18500    9/14/2009    $0.396    —  Cover   9/15/2009    $0.633
Profit: -$4,395.42    -60.06%
TimAlert, true pump and dump, were shares available at IB sho Tim shorted into +40% morning spike, I took the rest of the available shares; covered when Tim covered

OPTT    Short    5000    10/14/2009    $7.695    —  Cover    10/14/2009    $7.970
Profit: -$1,375.00    -3.57%
shorted 4 minutes after open on red, first down day after one 50% up day, had faded last hour of previous day, hit a lod of 7.56 and then quickly jumped green and I got out as quickly as I could

Biggest winners 2008

Here are some of my best trades from 2008.

USS    Short    7000    7/29/2008    $4.030    —  Cover    7/29/2008    $3.336
Profit: $4,852.77    17.20%
USS    Short    3000    7/29/2008    $4.027    —  Cover    7/30/2008    $2.725
Profit: $3,904.17    32.32%
I made up for my earlier loss by shorting this supernova.

GFET    Short    22100    8/11/2008    $0.300    —  Cover    8/12/2008    $0.231
Profit: $1,521.78    22.99%
up 300% on no news; shorted during morning panic, didn’t spike back up; held o/n

COIN    Short    11500    9/4/2008    $5.592    —  Cover   9/5/2008    $5.363
Profit: $2,628.26    4.09%
shorted on breakdown of 5.80 resistance level in afternoon; crappy entry due to BSOD on computer; added on bounces

VM    Short    4600    9/22/2008    $3.293    —  Cover    9/22/2008    $2.864
Profit: $1,974.96    13.04%
huge one-day spike in last minutes of previous day, companies with similar spikes OMN, RTK, NGD all tanked pre-market, so I shorted at open; covered as it got close to 2.75 from before the spike and big bidders appeared at 2.82

SIL    Short    32000    9/24/2008    $3.321    —  Cover   9/25/2008    $2.685
Profit: $20,368.00    19.17%
shorted a bunch on green to red after noon, shorted more on attempted break of 3, covered many times, shorted more on bounces; held full position overnight; covered as it dropped

VLKAY    Short    100    10/28/2008    $192.990    —  Cover    10/30/2008 $143.735
Profit:   $4,925.50    25.52%
shorted more on short squeeze; covered prior to forced buy-in

Biggest losers 2008

Here are some of my worst trades from 2008:

USS    Short    5000    7/28/2008    $4.500    —  Cover    7/28/2008    $4.935
Profit:  -$2,176.25    -9.67%
This was an accidental trade due to placing my limit order too low at ThinkorSwim to reserve shares to short.

COIN    Short    4200    9/4/2008    $6.000    —  Cover    9/4/2008    $6.263
Profit:  -$1,102.92    -4.38%
Shorted at break of 6.00 on TimAlert; got whipsawed out and covered as it bounced to 6.25 (Tim and others held)

WRSP    Short    7073    9/19/2008    $1.359    —  Cover  9/24/2008    $1.683
Profit: -$2,296.53    -23.90%
shorted on second up day from .7 to 1.1 … didn’t wait for first down day to assure getting shares, averaged up; covered in next couple days when volume died; later spiked to 1.90

VLKAY    Short    100    10/27/2008    $109.990   —  Cover   10/30/2008    $143.735
Profit: -$3,374.50    -30.68%
Up 100% on massive short squeeze; Volkswagen ADR; Previous big bump month ago on short squeeze led quickly to drop off; was first big up day; should have waited until next day to short; gapped up next day

Disclosure: No positions in any stocks mentioned in this post. I receive a commission for every DVD bought through my affiliate link to Sykes’ web store. To see more details on my relationship with Sykes, please see my disclosures. I have a disclosure policy and you can find all my disclaimers there as well; those disclosure & disclaimers are incorporated by reference into this post.


GFET Short 22100 8/11/2008 $0.300 $6,620 8/12/2008 $0.231 $1,521.78 22.99%